Playing the OC School Game: What the Numbers Actually Say

You've submitted your preferences. Now comes the waiting, and the wondering: did I pick the right schools? How tough is the competition for the ones I chose?

Here's the good news: you don't have to guess. The data tells a clear story.

The 14% number is misleading

You've probably seen the headline stat: roughly 14,000 children apply for about 1,840 OC places each year. That works out to around a 14% acceptance rate.

But that number is almost useless for understanding your child's actual chances. Some schools, like Artarmon or Matthew Pearce, attract so many applicants that the effective acceptance rate is far lower. Other schools have plenty of seats and relatively few applicants, making them significantly easier to get into.

The overall average hides enormous variation. What matters is the competitiveness of the specific schools on your list.

What reserve bands tell us (and why timing matters)

After the first round of offers goes out in September, the Department of Education publishes reserve band updates as families accept or decline their places. Schools start at Band A (the most competitive) and work their way down through B, C, D, and E as more offers are made from the reserve list.

The key insight isn't just which band a school ends up at. It's how quickly it gets there.

A school that stays at Band A or B for months is genuinely competitive. Families who receive offers are accepting them, which means fewer spots open up for the reserve list. Demand is high, and it stays high.

A school that drops to Band E within a few weeks? That tells you many families are declining their offers, likely because it wasn't their first preference. Spots open up quickly and the reserve list moves fast.

Both types of school offer the same OC program. But the competitive dynamics are completely different, and that should shape how you think about your preferences.

Not all popular schools are academically strong

Here's something that surprises many parents: a school's competitiveness doesn't always match its academic quality.

Some schools are popular because of location, reputation, or word of mouth, but their actual academic outcomes (measured through NAPLAN data and other indicators) are average. Other schools fly under the radar despite consistently strong academic performance, simply because they're in a less talked-about area or they're newer to the OC program.

These “undervalued” schools can be excellent strategic choices. Your child gets the same OC curriculum in a strong academic environment, with a much higher chance of receiving an offer.

What this means for your family

If you listed highly competitive schools, that's not a bad thing. It just means the margin is tighter, and your child's test performance needs to reflect that. Focus your remaining preparation time on building consistency across all three test sections rather than chasing perfection in one.

If you included a mix of competitive and accessible schools, that's smart portfolio thinking. The accessible schools aren't lesser options. They're realistic ones that still deliver on what OC is designed to do: challenge your child in a way their regular classroom can't.

And if you're not sure where your schools sit? That's exactly what data is for.

See how your schools compare

We built the OC School Finder to answer this question with real data, not forum opinions. It uses three years of reserve band history, weighted to reflect recent trends, alongside academic quality indicators to give you a clear picture of each school's competitiveness.

The tool is free to use and doesn't require an account. You can search by location, see which schools are within travelling distance, and get a sense of the competitive landscape.

Detailed school profiles, including year-by-year reserve band trends, academic performance breakdowns, and competitiveness scores are available with a paid subscription.

Whether you're confirming your choices were sound or starting to think about next year, the data is there. Use it.

Have questions about how we calculate school competitiveness? Explore the OC School Finder yourself.